American Idol - Boston & Atlanta

There are only two types of people in the United States - those that watch American Idol and those who say they don't. Everybody watches from time to time, and most pay attention. It is the most watched, most successful show of the century. Terri and I can become addicted to the show. We have faithfully watched it since the second season. Over that time, I have honed my ability to discern the potential stars for the chaff. With the recent announcement that Simon is leaving the show, I will use this blog as my audition for Simon's replacement.

I can do Simon. I have an ability to become irritated on demand, I can come up with great lines such as "you look like some sort of bug-eyed jungle monkey", and most of all, I can judge talent. Remember that I practically discovered Miranda Lambert.

I understand what makes an American Idol. The show is a talent contest, but talent is only 25% of the winning package. Simon calls the rest the "it" factor. I can detail what "it" is. The American Idol consists in equal parts of Talent + Looks + Likeability + Story. I appraise each contestant using this formula to accurately judge talent and pick winners.

My formidable credentials:

• I knew very early in season 2 that Ruben Studdard would beat Clay Aiken in the final. Ruben's "Teddy Bear" looks and personality made him more likeable than Clay. It was an easy call.
• In season 3, Fantasia won based on talent and story. Of all the winners, she had the least going for her, but it was a weak field. Jennifer Hudson was eliminated in the final weeks, primarily because she did not have the looks. That elimination essentially anointed Fantasia with the win.
• With my daughter as my witness, Lyndy and I picked Carrie Underwood as the winner of season 4 during her first audition. She was the first winner that scored high in all 4 elements; talent, looks likability and story. It was also a milestone in my personal growth to becoming an American Idol judge.
• Season 5 was an anomaly. Taylor Hicks won based solely on his likeability. The total package was Daughtry as he has since proven by becoming a commercial success. Even Kelly Pickler had more to offer than Taylor.
• Season 6 offered another weak field. Jordin Sparks won with talent and likeability only, but it was more than her competition could offer.
• Season 7 brought the strongest field ever to the final 12. My early pick was Kristy Lee Cook, who appeared to be the total package (remember she sold her horse to travel to the audition). Turned out she could only sing one song. Brooke White, Jason Castro, and David Archuletta eventually lost to David Cook. Any of the 4 could have won in other years.
• Much like in season 2, I was convinced that Kris Allen would trounce Adam Lambert in the final. Lambert had a high "creep out" index that deducted from his likeability score.

So season 9 began last Tuesday. I will continue to refine my formula and let all know who the eventual winner of season 9 will be. I may modify my formula based on history. In a weak field, likeability is far more important than any other factor. In a strong field, talent and looks rule. So this year's pick must be considered within the context of the total field. I may know the season 9 winner on completion of first auditions.

During the first auditions in Boston and Atlanta, no single contestant made me feel they were the total package, but several may be top ten contenders. After night one, using a 1 to 5 scale on the 4 factors, here are my picks to watch from Boston:

• Justin: Talent(4) + Looks(5) + Likeability(5) + Story(5) = 19 (he is the cancer guy)
• Maddy: Talent(3) + Looks(5) + Likeability(5) + Story(5) = 18 (she has retarded brothers)
• Leah: Talent(5) + Looks(4) + Likeability(5) + Story(3) = 17 (sheltered Christian girl)
• Tyler: Talent(3) + Looks(5) + Likeability(5) + Story(3) = 16 (2 broken wrists)
• Katie: Talent(3) + Looks(3) + Likeability(4) + Story(5) = 15 (dying grandmother)
• Ashley: Talent(4) + Looks(5) + Likeability(5) + Story(0) = 14 (no story)

And from Atlanta:

• Vanessa: Talent(3) + Looks(4) + Likeability(5) + Story(4) = 16 (hillbilly bridge jumper)
• Mallory: Talent(4) + Looks(5) + Likeability(5) + Story(?) = 14 (no story)

By the way, I did not miss Paula for an instant. Terri and I usually would fast forward through her anyway. Victoria Beckham, the Spice girl, was okay, however it was not that pleasant watching an anorexic for 2 hours. I look forward to new guest judges. Ellen, not so much but I will keep an open mind. More next week.