The State of the Race, the State of the Country

After the democrat convention, Hillary Clinton's lead in polling surged to what some pundits called unbeatable levels. They said the race was over - the coronation of Hillary Clinton should begin. Then out of left field, Trump began to close the gap. Now, on Friday September 23rd, the race is nearly a dead heat based on traditional polling. Non-traditional polling mechanisms tell a different story.

New metrics based on YouTube views, social media messaging, party enthusiasm and campaign crowds are beginning to indicate a real chance that Trump will win in a landslide. These new "big data" analysis' have proven accurate at predicting outcomes of complex questions, such as the Brexit vote.  Both parties are beginning to pay attention to these non-traditional indicators. This could be the reason that even as she is slightly ahead of Trump in national polling, Clinton appears to be in panic mode. Her recent rants and name-calling appear conclusive proof of the anxiety building within her campaign. She may be one collapse, eye twitch, obvious lie or long winded answer/redirection from a precipitous fall in the traditional polling.

I can only hope.  Much of my personal persuasion regarding the presidential race has focused on how bad Hillary would be for America. She is a liar, secretive, unhealthy, unqualified, and unaccomplished. The fear of more racial and class warfare, more government, less freedom and the diminishing of sanctity of life, drive me to support a better alternative. But I have done little to communicate why I believe Trump would be better for America.

I will start by describing how I see the current state of the country. we are in a long post-recession period that has been more about maintaining the status quo and less about economic recovery.  Economic growth has been mostly positive, but barely.  All historic recoveries have been much stronger. Unemployment is still weak, and workforce participation is the lowest in decades, and regulations have suppressed confidence and growth. Racial strife is as high as the 1960's. Urban quality of life is poor and declining. Riots and protests are prevalent. Traditional values are no longer considered politically correct. The culture has degraded to a point where the police are considered racist, rioters are idealists, and LGBT are idolized for their abnormal behavior. Politicians spit on their constituents by overtly lying to them and doing whatever they feel is necessary to win the next election. We have come a long way in 8 years, but mostly down.

This is the Barack Obama legacy and it must be reversed. In my opinion, Donald Trump is well suited to be that change agent. First, he is the most outspoken opponent to the pervasive political correctness that has led to cultural rot and national security concerns. I don't see Trump ever phrasing his speech in a manner that doesn't offend. He is freer to speak truth than any politician on the national scene.

Secondly, as a CEO he is experienced in forming an all star team and getting their ideas on how to solve difficult problems. He is listening to Rudy Giuliani on how he made the streets safer in New York and plans to fix the problems in Chicago and other cities in the same way. Controlling immigration could also be solved if proven solutions are considered. Extreme vetting, or a suspension of immigration from certain countries would make American's safer, but history is not consulted to find this has been tried many times in the past.  Proven strategies will get consideration regardless of political correctness.

And finally, Trump's economic plan would solve so many of our problems. For the moment, consider only his plan to lure off shore profits back into America. An estimated 5 trillion dollars are parked in other countries today because a company would need to pay a 35% tax to bring the cash back into America. Leaving corporate profits off shore helps other countries, but does nothing for Americans. If Trump's plan to lower the repatriation tax rate to 10 % is successful, the impact in the United States will be immediate and phenomenal. Companies will invest.  They will build factories, expand and create new products and markets, and most importantly, hire employees. The impact of this activity will domino into other businesses.  Economic growth would explode.

And, oh yeah.  The U.S. treasury will benefit by 500 billion dollars, roughly the amount of deficit spending for an entire pre-Obama year. The exploding growth and increased government spending (you don't expect congress to save it do you?) would create an upward spiral that would last for years. This enrichment will solve other problems.  I can imagine a scenario where jobs outnumber candidates.  Basic supply and demand principles then kick in and wages increase to entice workers. Would we have seen the riots in Ferguson, Baltimore or Charlotte if the urban community was near fully employed with good paying jobs?  I think not.

Don't misunderstand.  Economic growth does not fix what is wrong in the human soul. There is still a lot of work that is needed there.  But a person with a good paying job, and who is supporting a family has the incentive to further improve the person they are. Strong family leaders are crucial to the intercity and general cultural healing that is sorely needed in America. I strongly believe that Donald Trump has a far better chance of creating that environment in America than does Hillary Clinton.