Presidential Legacies

I find it someone interesting to see how a president's legacy change over time. It never turns out to be what we thought it would when the president left office. The best example is Richard Nixon. Many will remember the Watergate fiasco which ultimately led to his resignation in dishonor. Most would have bet the farm that would be his legacy. Many still remember him as being a "crook", mainly because of his quote "I am not a crook". But his legacy is much different. He is remembered as the president that opened up China to the United States. The rest has been reduced to trivia.

Jimmy Carter left office during a dark time in our history. Interest rates and inflation was at all time highs in our history. Iran had captured and held hostage over 100 American citizens who were released as he turned the office over the Ronald Reagan. At the time, Carter was seen as a timid president who never left the White House Rose Garden. There were no great accomplishments during his administration, so his legacy was assumed to be one of a very weak presidency. Since leaving office, Carter has been rather successful in changing that perception to that of a humanitarian and statesman, all based on his actions after being president.

I wonder how our last 2 president's legacies will be formed. Many will believe Bush's legacy will be either the 2 wars he left office without finishing, or the deficit spending. I think he will be remembered for neither. Instead, his legacy will be the Middle East for better or worse. If our pursuit of Osama bin Laden only serves to kindle the hatred of Muslims, leading to jihad after jihad, 20 years from now we will blame Bush. If by chance, there is a democratic fire spreading throughout the Middle East, that will be to Bush's credit.

Obama's legacy is far harder to predict since his administration is still in the first year. Yet, his legacy may already be written, we just don't know what it will be yet. It could be one of the following:

• National Health Care - If his initiative works and health care costs are under control with no rationing, his legacy will be that. If on the other hand, national health care becomes another underfunded entitlement on top of the others, Obama's legacy could be that he bankrupted America.
• Energy Policy - If alternate energy becomes a booming industry creating millions of jobs, Obama will be seen as wise having great foresight. Otherwise, he will be remembered for his pandering to the tree huggers that result in Cap and Trade legislation, increasing the cost of all forms of energy production.
• Inflation - The rapid increase in deficit spending will eventually cause inflation to return to America's economy. Inflation benefits no one, and is the most egregious hidden tax on the poor and fixed income elderly.
• Unemployment - Most analysts that are not tied to the administration are now conceding that unemployment will not improve much if any in 2010. Without job creation, any positive economic recovery movement will be tenuous at best, and could quickly reverse sending us into a new recession. Obama's job killing policies make the chance of unemployment improvement very remote.

To me, a negative legacy associated to inflation or unemployment are far more likely than a positive legacy related to either alternate energy or health care. It is just too difficult to imagine energy or health care legislation being well crafted or executed by the federal government. In terms of legacies, Obama's downside is far greater that his upside.