Long Range Weather Forecasting

Kansas City is known for highly variable weather. One saying is that if you don't like today's weather, just wait until tomorrow. Forecasting Kansas City's weather is a challenge. Storms usually don't form until they come onto the California coast, or pass over the Rockies. They can be on us in the Midwest the very next day. Many of the local weathermen will only forecast the next couple of days because their error rate is so high when looking 3 days or farther out. There is one exception. Gary Lezac, a local TV meteorologist, goes where no other local meteorologist will go. Not only does he regularly forecast out to 7 days, he also forecast seasonal weather using his Lezac Recurring Cycle (LRC) theory.

Last week he issued his Kansas City forecast using the LRC, and provided a summary of his theory. His current winter forecast also provides insight into what other parts of the country can expect this coming season. I started following his long range forecasting last winter and was surprised by his uncanny accuracy. What is most surprising is how he uses his theory to predict when the next storm or arctic air mass will arrive. He was very successful last year when predicting a winter weather changes out 21 days or more.

His current prediction has Kansas City set for a snowy, wet winter. Later this month or early next month, Gary will start to time out his cycle and predict future dates when winter storms will arrive. I find his approach logical and more accurate than anything anyone else doing. We will just see how he does with this winter pattern. You can follow him on his daily blog and see his explanation of the LRC theory.