Obama's Approval Rating

On two occasions I have blogged about Obama's falling approval rating. On June 30th, I wrote that his approval had fallen from a high of 65%, to 59%. while his disapproval rating had grown from a low of less than 20% to 34%. Then on August 3rd, I wrote that his approval had fallen to 54% and disapproval has risen 40%. My prediction was that at the current rate, his disapproval rating would exceed his approval rating as soon as October, but definitely before year end. So what has happened since then?

My source is RealClearPolitics.com, who track an average of all polls. They now show Obama ratings at 48% approve, 45% disapprove. While the predicted cross over has not yet occurred in the average poll, the Rasmussen poll shows his disapproval rating higher than his approval while the FOX News poll shows an even split at 46%. This next month may see a swing large enough to create the cross over in public perception of Obama's job performance. Three critical issues are coming to a head that will split his supporters. Barrack stands little chance of maintaining his majority approval rating into 2010.

• Afghanistan - Obama has now taken ownership of the war in Afghanistan, and a weak ownership it is. Call it surgette-lite. What is most surprising, is that Barrack has timidly adopted the same plan for which he criticized George Bush. The strategy will not play well to his base who wanted both wars to be ended as Obama promised during the campaign. Instead, Obama has attempted to appease his base by defining an end date. Maybe Barrack is using some Orwellian advice. George Orwell once said that the fastest way to end a war is to lose it.
• National Health Care - This is the centerpiece of Obama's administration. The abomination that was passed by the House of Representatives will followed by an equally flawed but different Senate version. A government option will survive as will the funding restriction on abortion. Both of these items will split his liberal support. End the end, most conservatives and independents, and a large percentage of liberals will not be happy with the federal health care legislation.
• Cap and Trade - Climategate has assured that Obama's cannot win with his stance on America's leadership role in fighting the global warming. But Obama cannot retreat from it. He needs the extra revenue Cap and Trade will bring into the government coffers to pay for a portion of his reckless deficient spending. Climategate will make a bad federal deficit even worse.

Since assuming office, Obama's approval rating has sunk 17% while his disapproval ratings have risen by 25%. At some poin during December 2009 his job performance disapprovals will become higher than his approvals.

I really do not believe that approval ratings are the best measure of a President's performance. I do believe they are the "proof of a mandate" every President needs to push his programs through a spineless Congress. The impending approval/disapproval cross over will essentially neuter Obama and end his socialist agenda. For that, we can all be thankful.