The Impending Bloodbath

I have bit my tongue, staying silent about what I see as an impending beat down of epic proportion coming to the democrat party in November.  I do realize that America has not suddenly fallen in love with republicans.  But by a 10% margin, voters now favor republicans over democrats.  Never has the gap been this wide in favor of republicans.  Favor might be too strong of a word.  Hated less, but willing to give them another chance is more accurate.

I have worried that republicans would do something to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but recently have become convinced even they cannot reverse the current trend.  Neither can the democrats.  I base this on how candidates from each party are now campaigning.  Candidates from each party tend to run on the same platforms, so what you see locally is pretty much how each party's candidates are running nationally.

Republicans are running against Obama.  Just as they earned the "party of no" reputation, they are continuing to say no and it is working.  It is not surprising since a majority of American's did not support the Obama agenda in the first place.  Running against government take over of insurance, banks, car companies and national health care can only help them retain current support levels and even win over the wavering few.

Democrats cannot turn the tide either.  Two local races, one for the House of Representatives 3rd district Kansas, the other for Missouri Senate tell the story.  The Kansas House race is between Kevin Yoder, a republican newcomer to national politics running against Stephanie Moore, wife of current representative Dennis Moore.  As the national democratic party pumps millions of dollars into TV time for the Moore campaign, Stephanie is nowhere to be found.  She will not debate Yoder, nor will she appear anywhere but friendly fund raisers.  Moore made the mistake early of saying she would support the votes and positions her husband did, such as Cap and Trade, National Health Care, Stimulus spending, etc.  These are very unpopular to most Kansans, so she has effectively painted herself into a corner.  I think her strategy is to not go anywhere her views can be challenged, lay low and hope for a miracle.  She cannot win.

In Missouri, republican Roy Blunt is running against Robin Canahan.  Blunt is currently a member of the House of Representatives from Missouri while Carnahan is Missouri's Secretary of State.  Carnahan knew she faced a tough uphill battle and started with negative campaign ads right out of the chute.  Her campaign mantra is that Blunt is the most corrupt politician in Washington.  It's not working as she is down 7% in the polls and negative.

I found the most surprising campaign strategy used locally was Carnahan's attempt to paint herself as a fiscal conservative, and Blunt as a liberal spender based on his support for the Stimulus bill.  Carnahan had already stated that she would vote with Obama on most issues, and Barrack himself during a fundraiser for Carnahan said that he would already have certain elements of his agenda if Carnahan was already in Washington.  It's kind of hard to be seen as a fiscal conservative when you buddy up with the largest deficit spender in the history of the nation.  Canahans' strategy?  The best I can figure is to describe yourself as someone you are not, even in the face of is ample evidence.  Good luck with that.

Dem's are facing the same challenge across the country.  They cannot run from Obama, and neither can they stand with him.  So the republicans don't really need to do anything different, while the democrats can't do anything other than take the beating.  These two races really show just how hard it would be to engineer a November outcome other than a democratic bloodbath. 

That made me smile.  Happy Labor Day.