More Scenarios

It looks like Donald Trump is the republican nominee, however I still believe there are many twists and turns to play out before we head to the polls.  I believe the ballot will not be a simple Trump -Clinton choice.  It is looking more likely that a third party candidate will emerge on the republican side.  And there is still the possibility that republican bosses will make an attempt to de-throne Trump at the convention, however that has become less likely as a first ballot win is now possible.

I believe this election has the possibility of becoming a near 50 state rout.  The interesting point is that rout could go Clinton's way or Trump's way.  That is odd, so an explanation is in order.  Currently, both parties are deeply fractured and must spend considerable time in healing internal wounds and wooing the base.  This election will boil down to who can consolidate "us" better than "they" do.

Scenario #1: Assuming Clinton survives the FBI primary, something I am doubting, she could win in a landslide by naming Bernie as her VP.  This would result in instant democrat  unification, and is the scenario I fear most.

Scenario #2: Clinton doesn't survive the FBI primary and Biden or Warren step in at the last minute. Normally, late entry into an election would not be successful due to a lack of organization, but this year democrats and republicans are craving someone, anyone else.  Many doubt that Clinton will be indicted because Obama will protect her with his inJustice department.  Throw that out once Clinton starts to slide in the polls.  Politicians love power and will do anything to retain it.  Once convinced she may lose to Trump, there will be no protection for Clinton.

Scenario #3: Trump can will in a landslide too.  His path would be shaped by his VP pick.  The common thought is that he would pick someone popular in a swing state to help with the electoral college.  I don't think so.  Trump is the most non-traditional candidate of our lifetimes and I would not be surprised if he did something oddly strategic, such as select Bernie. Before you laugh, consider this.  He and Bernie have few overlapping positions, and share the "establishment is working against us" narrative.  By selecting Bernie, he takes Clinton's most powerful move (see scenario #1) off the board. He also opens up the possibility of drawing up to half of the democrat #NeverHillary base to his side. There isn't much of a downside since the VP position is a harmless role with little power other that what the president delegates.  Trump could assign him a few minor tasks where he couldn't do much damage.

Scenario #4: I wrote about this a few weeks ago and believe it is still possible. This scenario leads to the election of a "none of the above" candidate. Someone with positive name recognition places their name on the ballot in a few states. In an atmosphere where the electorate craves someone else, it is entirely possible they win a state or two and make it impossible for either Clinton or Trump to garner 270 electoral votes.  The election then goes to the house of representatives, the current lame duck one not the newly elected one, who can then select anyone to become president. It can happen and would be constitutional.