Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Tomorrow, or in 2013?

Possibly the most idiotic statement ever made by a Politician.





Tomorrow, the Supreme Court will rule on whether Obamacare is constitutional.  They may have two decisions to make.  The first is whether the individual mandate, which requires individuals to purchase health insurance, is constitutional.  If the Justices determine it is constitutional, their work is done. However, if they deem the individual mandate is unconstitutional and strike it down, a second decision must be made.  That decision is whether the the individual mandate alone is stuck from the bill, or if the entire bill is stuck down.

Interestingly, the Affordable Health Care act did not include a severability clause as most bills do.  A severability clause simply states that if one component of the law is struck down, the remainder of the law can continues.  It would seem the Justices can only allow Obamacare to be implemented in total, or struck down in total.  From the conservative perspective, the striking down of the entire law is our first best hope.  If the law is deemed constitutional, our last arrow in the quiver is to win solid majorities in the house and Senate and put Mitt Romney in the White House. 

The timing of the ruling coincides with a House vote to hold Obama's Attorney General in contempt over his failure to produce documents related to the the Fast and Furious program.  Obama inserted himself into the fray by invoking executive privilege.  By doing so, he has called into question what he knew and when he knew it - definitely a risky move.  So tomorrow, Obama could lose two major battles in a matter of a few hours.

If he loses both, I believe the downward momentum of his candidacy accelerates.  While still slightly ahead of Romney in the polls, he has started to slip due to a few crazy statements.  Many in the public are beginning to understand just how far left a radical he is.  I expect this downward drift to continue.  A couple of blows tomorrow will get his approval rating sliding down a steep slope.

Most people will see the Obamacare effort of over 3 years to be akin to Nero fiddling while Rome burned.  A waste of time, doomed from the start by its obvious clash with the constitution.  It is wasted time better spent on encouraging economic growth.  Combine these egregious errors with the $5 trillion in debt he has acquired, an unemployment rate that hasn't fallen below 8%, the rate he said it would not go above if we just passed his stimulus program, rising gas prices, and on and on, and you can see why Obama is in trouble.  If he was the CEO of any corporation, he'd have been fired months ago.  He deserves no less in November.

Indications are that his White House, and in particular his reelection staff, are seeing ominous trends and are beginning to reach for the panic button.  Why else should he pander for gay and Hispanic votes by using executive orders to supersede the balance of power?  We will know when the panic button is fully depressed the day Biden is dumped from the ticket.  Biden is a drag on Obama.  He says dumb things and sometimes gets sideways with his boss.  Much of the disagreement is staged in my opinion, as they set the plate for an Obama-Clinton ticket.  That change is really the last ammunition Obama has. 

I don't think the desperation move will work for two reasons.  First, people don't vote for the vice-president.  Second, Hillary will be required to repeat the mantra that Obama's policies of the last four years are the right policies for the next four.  More of the same is a hard sell, and will discredit any thought that Clinton would revive a floundering White House. 

I am hopeful that regardless of what SCOTUS does tomorrow concerning Obamacare, conservatism will win in the end.  If not tomorrow, in 2013 with a new congress and president.






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